Unprecedented Europe Heat in June–July 2019: Risk in the Historical and Future Context

Abstract

Abstract Western‐central Europe experienced the most severe June–July heat on record in 2019, with several heatwaves occurring over the most densely populated regions. Highest 3‐day averaged daily mean temperature in June–July averaged over the region exceeds normal by 4.7°C, which is estimated to be a 1‐in‐283‐year event over the 1950–2014 climate. The driver and future likelihood of this extreme heat in a changing climate have drawn extensive attention. Based on the newly released climate model data from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that anthropogenic climate change has caused a sevenfold increase in the likelihood of the extreme heat over 1950–2014 climate, and even a 23‐fold increase since 1980s. Such extreme heat will become more frequent in the future, with return periods of 1.8–7.2 years under future emission and societal development scenarios. Without sufficient adaptation strategies, such extreme heat would become more widespread, long‐lasting, and severe over Europe.