A new distribution for modeling wind speed characteristics and evaluating wind power potential in Xinjiang, China

Abstract

In this study, the authors conduct the research of the wind speed characteristics and the wind energy assessment based on the data at a height of 10 m in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region which is located in the northwest part of China. The analysis shows that the wind is strong in the east-west direction, and the wind speed is concentrated in the range of 2 m/s to 9 m/s. Moreover, it has obvious periodicity and not large skewness, hence we need to find a model that can flexibly fit the wind speed distribution in the area. Then, we introduce a new flexible distribution for the first time, called Alpha logarithmic transformed Log-normal (ALTLN). Thirdly, the data are split and an analysis is made for the typically monthly, quarterly, and annual wind speed distribution and wind power density. The results show that the coefficient of determination (R2) is almost 99%, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is less than 0.05, and most of the results pass the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test which means the corresponding p values greater than 0.05 and the values are between 0.2 and 0.8. Finally, we come to the conclusions that the ALTLN distribution has good applicability to fit wind speed distribution and annual wind energy output reaches several thousands of gigawatt-hours, especially to Kashi. These results are helpful to develop the wind energy better for relevant departments.