Epidemiology and Infection · 2020 · 16 citations · 17 references
Public HealthInfectious Disease ControlPreventive MedicineCompartmental ModelingHiv ControlHiv PreventionAntiretroviral TherapyHiv EpidemiologyPrevention Of Sexual TransmissionBehavioral Hiv PreventionCompartmental Model ConstructionHiv Antiretroviral TherapyHiv Drug Resistance EpidemiologyHiv Epidemic ModelingHiv Infection ModelsHiv Transmission DynamicsHiv Transmission Reduction
In recent years, men who have sex with men (MSM) constitute a major group of HIV transmission in China. High primary drug-resistance (PDR) rate in MSM also represents a serious challenge for the Chinese antiretroviral therapy (ART) program. To assess the efficiency of ART in controlling HIV/AIDS infection among MSM, we developed a compartmental model for the annually reported HIV/AIDS MSM from 2007 to 2019 in the Zhejiang Province of China. R0 was 2.3946 (95% CI (2.2961-2.4881)). We predict that 90% of diagnosed HIV/AIDS individuals will have received treatment till 2020, while the proportion of the diagnosed remains as low as 40%. Even when the proportion of the diagnosed reaches 90%, R0 is still larger than the level of AIDS epidemic elimination. ART can effectively control the spread of HIV, even in the presence of drug resistance. The 90-90-90 strategy alone may not eliminate the HIV epidemic in Chinese MSM. Behavioural and biologic interventions are the most effective interventions to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic among MSM.
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