An overview of global energy scenarios by 2040: identifying the driving forces using cross-impact analysis method

TLDR

The study compares global energy scenarios to identify their main characteristics, scenario‑building frameworks, and time frames. The authors employ cross‑impact analysis to quantify expert judgments on social, technological, economic, environmental, and political factors, and evaluate scenario outputs—including GDP growth, technology developments, sectoral energy demand, fuel supply, energy intensity, and carbon emissions—by 2040. The study identifies ten key 2040 driving forces—population growth and climate change (social and environmental), investment, financial shocks, consumer behavior and energy efficiency (economic), global governance and geopolitical relations (political), and technological advances in renewables and oil & gas (technological).

Abstract

Abstract This study presents a novel comparative analysis on global energy scenarios in terms of main characteristics, scenario building frameworks and time frames. The study analyzes each energy scenario’s outputs and outlooks by 2040 such as gross domestic product growth, technology developments, primary energy demand by sector, energy supply by fuel, energy intensity and carbon emissions. Based on the foresight semiquantitative method, global energy driving forces which play significant roles in reshaping the world energy future by 2040 have been identified. The study applies mathematical principles to quantify the rational judgments of an expert panel in social, technological, economic, environmental and political framework through cross-impact analysis. Among the 10 global energy driving forces by 2040, population growth rate and climate change are identified as social and environmental driving forces, respectively. Investment in infrastructures, financial shocks, consumer behavior and energy efficiency are marked as economic driving forces, while global governance and geopolitical relationships are identified as the global energy market’s political driving force. And finally, technological development in renewable energies as well as in oil and gas upstream sector is recognized as a technological driving force.