How simulation modelling can help reduce the impact of COVID-19

TLDR

Modelling has been extensively used by governments and the WHO to decide mitigation strategies, mainly through epidemiological models, but a pandemic raises many other problems that require different models. The article aims to identify COVID‑19 challenges and explain how simulation modelling can aid decision‑makers in making informed choices. The authors propose using simulation modelling to analyze pandemic challenges and guide decision‑makers toward optimal strategies.

Abstract

Modelling has been used extensively by all national governments and the World Health Organisation in deciding on the best strategies to pursue in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. Principally these have been epidemiological models aimed at understanding the spread of the disease and the impacts of different interventions. But a global pandemic generates a large number of problems and questions, not just those related to disease transmission, and each requires a different model to find the best solution. In this article we identify challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss how simulation modelling could help to support decision-makers in making the most informed decisions. Modellers should see the article as a call to arms and decision-makers as a guide to what support is available from the simulation community.