Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective

Abstract

• The effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion were investigated. • A government–enterprise–consumer system dynamics model was developed. • Abolishment of purchase subsidy can lead to a decline in electric vehicle sales. • Other policies can make up for the negative impact of purchase subsidy abolishment. A comprehensive understanding of how the policy mix influences the market diffusion of sustainable technology is a critical focus of recent research. Electric vehicles are considered to have the potential to address energy depletion, climate warming, and air pollution. This study attempts to investigate the effect of multiple policies, namely, product subsidy, carbon emission trading, and license plate restriction policies on electric vehicle diffusion once the purchase subsidy scheme is phased out in China. Thus, a system dynamics model that considers the interaction explicitly among the government, enterprises, and consumers is proposed. Multiple scenarios are adopted to analyze the policy effect on electric vehicle diffusion. Findings reveal the market share of electric vehicles in China will drop by 40.39% in 2020 if the purchase subsidy scheme is abolished. The three policies discussed in this paper can make up for the negative impact of purchase subsidy policy abolishment and promote the long-term growth of EVs. However, according to an in-depth analysis of the policy mechanism, these policies should also be adjusted according to the actual situation and their roles can only be optimized by combining them with other policies.