Using Baidu search index to monitor and predict newly diagnosed cases of HIV/AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhea in China: estimates from a vector autoregressive (VAR) model

Abstract

Objectives Internet search engine data have been widely used to monitor and predict infectious diseases. Existing studies have found correlations between search data and HIV/AIDS epidemics. We aimed to extend the literature through exploring the feasibility of using search data to monitor and predict the number of newly diagnosed cases of HIV/AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhoea in China. Methods This paper used vector autoregressive model to combine the number of newly diagnosed cases with Baidu search index to predict monthly newly diagnosed cases of HIV/AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhoea in China. The procedures included: (1) keywords selection and filtering; (2) construction of composite search index; (3) modelling with training data from January 2011 to October 2016 and calculating the prediction performance with validation data from November 2016 to October 2017. Results The analysis showed that there was a close correlation between the monthly number of newly diagnosed cases and the composite search index (the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients were 0.777 for HIV/AIDS, 0.590 for syphilis and 0.633 for gonorrhoea, p<0.05 for all). The R 2 were all more than 85% and the mean absolute percentage errors were less than 11%, showing the good fitting effect and prediction performance of vector autoregressive model in this field. Conclusions Our study indicated the potential feasibility of using Baidu search data to monitor and predict the number of newly diagnosed cases of HIV/AIDS, syphilis and gonorrhoea in China.