Strategic targeting: authoritarian capacity, state dependent populations, and electoral manipulation

Abstract

Electoral manipulation is an activity conducted primarily at the local level, and the emerging comparative literature has shown that patterns of manipulation often exhibit striking spatial heterogeneity within countries. Yet, the causes of this variation are less well understood. This article explains variation in electoral manipulation at the local level, and presents a theoretical framework focusing on the role that local socioeconomic conditions play in affecting regime agents’ capacity to carry out electoral manipulation. Specifically, we argue that local-level heterogeneity in electoral manipulation can be explained by regime agents’ targeting of manipulation at localities where the electoral returns of illicit efforts are greatest and the risks associated with manipulation lowest. We test our hypotheses with multilevel statistical models that use unique local (county) level sociodemographic and electoral data from Russia. Our findings contribute to the comparative literature on electoral malpractice and authoritarian politics.