Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070

Abstract

Abstract Climate change projections for the four major divisions of the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are analysed using a six‐member ensemble (EURO‐CORDEX) for 1961–1990, 1981–2010, 2011–2040, and 2041–2070 periods for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The direct forcing method was used to correct the bias of the simulated data using an observational gridded dataset (E‐OBS). Results show a decrease of the temperate areas in the north‐western region of the IP, with higher expression in RCP8.5 for 2041–2070. Major changes in bioclimates, ombrotypes, and thermotypes are projected to occur in northernmost regions, as well as, central and south‐eastern areas of Iberia. The projected decrease of Mediterranean pluviseasonal areas hint at a decrease of several evergreen or deciduous forest types. Conversely, due to the projected increase of Mediterranean xeric and desertic areas, it can be expected an increase of microforests or dense shrubby lands, as well as the appearance of half deserts or low‐density scrublands. Finally, the continentality index patterns revealed a strengthening of the coastal‐inner climate contrasts in the future, mainly for RCP8.5.