[Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China].

Abstract

<b>Objective:</b> To evaluate the current status of the prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China, establish a predictive model to evaluate the effects of the current prevention and control strategies, and provide scientific information for decision-making departments. <b>Methods:</b> Based on the epidemic data of COVID-19 openly accessed from national health authorities, we estimated the dynamic basic reproduction number <i>R</i>(0)(<i>t</i>) to evaluate the effects of the current COVID-19 prevention and control strategies in all the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) as well as in Wuhan and the changes in infectivity of COVID-19 over time. <b>Results:</b> For the stability of the results, 24 provinces (municipality) with more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. At the beginning of the outbreak, the <i>R</i>(0)(<i>t</i>) showed unstable trend with big variances. As the strengthening of the prevention and control strategies, <i>R</i>(0)(<i>t</i>) began to show a downward trend in late January, and became stable in February. By the time of data analysis, 18 provinces (municipality) (75<i>%</i>) had the <i>R</i>(0)(<i>t</i>)s less than 1. The results could be used for the decision making to free population floating conditionally. <b>Conclusions:</b> Dynamic <i>R</i>(0)(<i>t</i>) is useful in the evaluation of the change in infectivity of COVID-19, the prevention and control strategies for the COVID-19 outbreak have shown preliminary effects, if continues, it is expected to control the COVID-19 outbreak in China in near future.