Lockdown may partially halt the spread of 2019 novel coronavirus in Hubei province, China

Abstract

We present a timely evaluation of the impact of lockdown on the 2019-nCov epidemic in Hubei province, China. The implementation appears to be effective in reducing about 60% of new infections and deaths, and its effect also appears to be sustainable even after its removal. Delaying its implementation reduces its effectiveness. However, the direct economic cost of such a lockdown remains to be seen and whether the model is replicable in other Chinese regions remains a matter of further investigation.