Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network

TLDR

Human factors are major contributors to maritime accident prevention failures, yet conventional quantitative methods such as fault trees and bow‑ties are static and cannot handle uncertainty, limiting their applicability. This study introduces the multidimensional analysis model of accident causes (MAMAC) to overcome these limitations and proposes safety countermeasures for the most influential human factors. MAMAC integrates human‑factor analysis, a classification system, business process management, intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian networks into a dynamic model, which was applied to a Chinese sand‑carrier accident database to identify the top ten contributing primary events. The analysis revealed that unsafe preconditions and unsafe supervision are the leading human‑factor contributors, while unsafe acts receive less emphasis, and the model proved effective in calculating accident failure probabilities.

Abstract

Abstract Human factors are widely regarded to be highly contributing factors to maritime accident prevention system failures. The conventional methods for human factor assessment, especially quantitative techniques, such as fault trees and bow‐ties, are static and cannot deal with models with uncertainty, which limits their application to human factors risk analysis. To alleviate these drawbacks, in the present study, a new human factor analysis framework called multidimensional analysis model of accident causes (MAMAC) is introduced. MAMAC combines the human factors analysis and classification system and business process management. In addition, intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and Bayesian Network are integrated into MAMAC to form a comprehensive dynamic human factors analysis model characterized by flexibility and uncertainty handling. The proposed model is tested on maritime accident scenarios from a sand carrier accident database in China to investigate the human factors involved, and the top 10 most highly contributing primary events associated with the human factors leading to sand carrier accidents are identified. According to the results of this study, direct human factors, classified as unsafe acts, are not a focus for maritime investigators and scholars. Meanwhile, unsafe preconditions and unsafe supervision are listed as the top two considerations for human factors analysis, especially for supervision failures of shipping companies and ship owners. Moreover, potential safety countermeasures for the most highly contributing human factors are proposed in this article. Finally, an application of the proposed model verifies its advantages in calculating the failure probability of accidents induced by human factors.