Verification a model of predicting vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in Chinese pregnant women

Abstract

The objective of our research was to confirm the prediction role of Grobman model for vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) in Chinese pregnant women. In this research, 535 pregnant who had once cesarean delivery and the least once subsequent try to a vaginal labor in Jiaxing of China were involved. The Grobman background factors and five new factors were included. Overall, in total of 456 women had successful VBAC, the success percent was 85.2%. The new background variable "maternal height" was considered as an additional predictor for VBAC. The Grobman model's area under the curve (AUC) was 0.811 (95% CI = 0.751-0.870) and the AUC of this modified model combined 2 new factors was 0.834 (95% CI = 0.781-0.886). Nevertheless, there has no markedly difference between these 2 models of the AUC. In conclusion, the Grobman model was suitable for Chinese pregnant. However, further improvements were needed to make a new predictive model of VBAC success rate for Chinese pregnant women through analyzing the clinical data of vaginal trial delivery after cesarean section.