National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics

TLDR

Better land stewardship is essential to meet the Paris Agreement, especially in the tropics where ecosystem destruction drives the largest greenhouse gas emissions and offers the greatest potential for additional carbon storage. We assess the cost‑effective tropical country‑level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS) to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals. We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios and examine governance and financial capacity factors that influence the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost‑effective tropical NCS could provide 6.56 Pg CO₂ e yr⁻¹ globally at <$100 US$/Mg CO₂ e, with half of tropical countries able to mitigate over half of their emissions and more than a quarter exceeding national emissions, enabling the majority of enhanced NDCs while advancing SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

Abstract

Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems—to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO 2 e yr −1 at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO 2 e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.