A likely increase in fine particulate matter and premature mortality under future climate change

Abstract

Abstract Climate change modulates the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) via modifying atmospheric circulation, temperature, and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, PM 2.5 is associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and premature mortality. Here, we use seven models to assess the response of PM 2.5 to end of the twenty-first century climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, and the corresponding impact on premature mortality. The majority of models yield an increase in both PM 2.5 and premature mortality associated with lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease in all world regions except Africa. These results are robust across five different future population projections, although the magnitude of premature deaths can vary by up to a factor of two. Much larger uncertainty is related to uncertainty in model physics and the representation of aerosol processes. Although our analysis requires several assumptions related to future population estimates, as well as the concentration-response function, results suggest that future emission reductions are necessary to avoid the likely health risks associated with increasing PM 2.5 in a warmer world.