Defining and Evaluating Microbial Contributions to Metabolite Variation in Microbiome-Metabolome Association Studies

Abstract

Identifying the key microbial taxa responsible for metabolic differences between microbiomes is an important step toward understanding and manipulating microbiome metabolism. To achieve this goal, researchers commonly conduct microbiome-metabolome association studies, comprehensively measuring both the composition of species and the concentration of metabolites across a set of microbial community samples and then testing for correlations between microbes and metabolites. Here, we evaluated the utility of this general approach by first developing a rigorous mathematical definition of the contribution of each microbial taxon to metabolite variation and then examining these contributions in simulated data sets of microbial community metabolism. We found that standard correlation-based analysis of our simulated microbiome-metabolome data sets can identify true contributions with very low predictive value and that its performance depends strongly on specific properties of both metabolites and microbes, as well as on those of the surrounding environment. Combined, our findings can guide future interpretation and validation of microbiome-metabolome studies.