Determining the cutoff of rainfall for Plasmodium falciparum malaria outbreaks in India

Abstract

Malaria outbreaks can occur in post monsoon in arid and semi-arid region whereas in summer/monsoon in humid and per-humid regions. The lag period between rainfall and outbreak differs from one month with short lag (humid and per-humid) to long lag (arid and semi-arid). Based on the determined threshold of rainfall, the findings would be helpful in forewarning of imminent outbreak of malaria for the timely preparedness of malaria outbreaks not only in 21 studied districts, but also in several other districts of different climatic regions of India.