Drivers of improved PM _2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017

TLDR

From 2013 to 2017, China’s toughest clean‑air policy led to nationwide declines in fine‑particle (PM2.5) concentrations. This study estimates the drivers of improved PM2.5 air quality and associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017. Using a measure‑specific integrated evaluation that combines a bottom‑up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure‑response functions. National PM2.5 concentrations fell from 61.8 to 42.0 µg/m³, mainly due to anthropogenic emission abatements; meteorological variations had small effects, and key measures—strengthening industrial emission standards, upgrading boilers, phasing out outdated capacities, and promoting clean residential fuels—accounted for 6.6, 4.4, 2.8, and 2.2 µg/m³ declines respectively, reducing PM2.5‑attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (92 % of avoided deaths).

Abstract

From 2013 to 2017, with the implementation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in China, significant declines in fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations occurred nationwide. Here we estimate the drivers of the improved PM2.5 air quality and the associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017 based on a measure-specific integrated evaluation approach, which combines a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure-response functions. The estimated national population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 61.8 (95%CI: 53.3-70.0) to 42.0 µg/m3 (95% CI: 35.7-48.6) in 5 y, with dominant contributions from anthropogenic emission abatements. Although interannual meteorological variations could significantly alter PM2.5 concentrations, the corresponding effects on the 5-y trends were relatively small. The measure-by-measure evaluation indicated that strengthening industrial emission standards (power plants and emission-intensive industrial sectors), upgrades on industrial boilers, phasing out outdated industrial capacities, and promoting clean fuels in the residential sector were major effective measures in reducing PM2.5 pollution and health burdens. These measures were estimated to contribute to 6.6- (95% CI: 5.9-7.1), 4.4- (95% CI: 3.8-4.9), 2.8- (95% CI: 2.5-3.0), and 2.2- (95% CI: 2.0-2.5) µg/m3 declines in the national PM2.5 concentration in 2017, respectively, and further reduced PM2.5-attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (95% CI: 0.35-0.39), or 92% of the total avoided deaths. Our study confirms the effectiveness of China's recent clean air actions, and the measure-by-measure evaluation provides insights into future clean air policy making in China and in other developing and polluting countries.