Comparison of child adiposity indices in prediction of hypertension in early adulthood

Abstract

We aimed to compare child body mass index (BMI) in prediction of hypertension in early adulthood with 4 other adiposity indices (waist circumference [WC], waist circumference-to-height ratio [WHtR], waist-to-hip ratio [WHR], and triceps skinfold [TSF]). The cohort from the China Health and Nutrition Survey 1993-2011 consisted of 1444 adults aged 18-36 years who were examined in childhood and early adulthood. Child adiposity indices and adult blood pressure (BP) were transformed into age-, sex-, and survey year-specific Z-scores. Adult hypertension was defined as BP ≥130/80 mm Hg as per the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. Adult hypertension prevalence was 32.9% during a mean follow-up of 10.1 years. Childhood BMI showed stronger correlation with adult BP than WHR and TSF (P_S for difference <.05). Child BMI showed the better prediction of adult hypertension compared with WHtR, WHR, and TSF using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (P_S for difference <.05). Per SD change in the predictor, child BMI (relative risk [95% confidence interval], 1.11 [1.04-1.18]) and WC (1.12 [1.05-1.20]) were significantly associated with adult hypertension using covariate-adjusted Poisson models with robust standard errors. Child BMI performed equally or better compared with 4 other adiposity indices in predicting adult hypertension.