Effect of Urbanization on Ozone and Resultant Health Effects in the Pearl River Delta Region of China

Abstract

Abstract The United Nations has reported that 55% of the global population resides in urban areas, and 68% of the population is expected to be urban dwellers by 2050. Urbanization has critical implications for global land cover. Relevant literature has provided evidence attributing climatic effects to urban expansion; however, few studies have investigated the effect on public health and pollutant sensitivity to emissions. This study aimed to characterize the effect of urbanization‐induced changes in regional climate on ozone (O 3 ), to evaluate ozone sensitivity to nitrogen oxide (NO x ) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, and to estimate premature mortalities due to O 3 exposure. We employed atmospheric models with the higher‐order decoupled direct method to simulate effects of urbanization on O 3 and to determine O 3 sensitivity to NO x and VOC emissions. China‐specific concentration response functions were utilized to estimate cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities due to ozone exposure. Urbanization increased O 3 , which translated to a 39.6% increase in O 3 ‐induced premature mortality (1,100 deaths). Moreover, O 3 has become less/more sensitive to unit changes in NO x and VOC emissions in various cities. Urban greening may reduce urban temperature, but it may increase O 3 in some cities due to the additional VOC emissions of greening. These findings highlight the strong interactions between land use policies, urban climate adaptation strategies, and air quality policies, suggesting the need of cobeneficial strategies and policies. We proposed a precision environmental management concept that emphasizes the importance of considering the specific atmospheric condition and composition of a city when formulating its environmental policies.