Global modeling of nature’s contributions to people

TLDR

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. The study aims to present a fine‑scale global model of current status and future scenarios for water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. The authors employ fine‑scale global modeling that integrates spatially explicit data on water quality, coastal risk, and pollination to evaluate present conditions and projected changes. The model shows that nature’s capacity to meet people’s needs is declining, with up to 5 billion people facing higher water pollution and insufficient pollination, hundreds of millions confronting heightened coastal risk, and continued loss posing severe threats that could be mitigated 3‑ to 10‑fold under a sustainable development scenario.

Abstract

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.