Middle East Hydropolitics and Equity Measures for Water-Sharing Agreements

Abstract

Aaron T. WolfUniversity of Alabama, Tuscaloosa(1)Ariel Dinar(2)Agricultural and Natural Resources Department The World Bank, Washington, D.C.Because of water's preeminent role in survival--from an individual's biology to a nation's economy--political conflicts over international water resources tend to be particularly contentious. The intensity of a water conflict can be exacerbated by a number of factors, including a region's geographic, geopolitic, or hydropolitic landscape. Water conflicts are especially bitter, for example, where the climate is arid, where the co-riparians of regional waterways are otherwise engaged in political confrontation, or where the population's water demand is already approaching or surpassing annual supply.The watersheds of the arid and volatile Middle East provide settings for water conflicts of extreme intensity, in that each of the three major waterways--the Nile, the Jordan, and the Tigris-Euphrates systems--have elements of all of these exacerbating factors. In fact, as will be discussed below, scarce water resources have already been at the heart of much of the bitter, occasionally armed, conflict endemic to the region. It is of little wonder that Boutros Boutros-Ghali, currently Secretary-General of the United Nations, in the past suggested that a future war in the Middle East may be fought over water.(3)One can find room for optimism, however, in the fact that the same characteristics of water resources which fuel conflict can, if managed carefully, induce cooperation in an environment of hostility. According to Frey and Naff,(4) precisely because it is essential to life and so highly charged, water can--perhaps even tends to--produce cooperation even in the absence of trust between concerned actors.At the heart of water conflict management, is the question 'equity.' A vague and relative term in any event, criteria for equity are particularly difficult to determine in water conflicts, where international legal guidelines are poorly developed. However, application of an 'equitable' water-sharing agreement along the volatile waterways of the Middle East is a prerequisite to hydropolitical stability which, finally, could help propel political forces away from conflict in favor of cooperation.This paper explores the question of equity measures for water-sharing agreements in the context of Middle East hydropolitics and is divided into three parts. The next section provides a brief summary of the hydropolitical history of the major waterways of the Middle East, focusing on international instances of hydro-conflict or, alternately and more rarely, hydro-cooperation. Following is a section which offers various measures of water-sharing equity which have been proposed in different settings and academic disciplines, and which may be useful to the process of water conflict resolution.Water Conflict and Cooperation ill the Middle EastLiving as they do in a transition zone between Mediterranean, subtropical and arid climates, the people in and around the major watersheds of the Middle East have always been aware of the limits imposed by scarce water resources. Settlements sprang up in fertile valleys or near large, permanent wells, and trade routes were established from oasis to oasis. In ancient times, cycles of weather patterns had occasionally profound effects on the course of history. For example, recent research suggests that climatic changes 10,000 years ago, which caused the average weather patterns around the Dead Sea to become warmer and drier, may have been an important factor in the birth of agriculture in the region.(5)The fluctuating waters of the ancient Middle East have given rise to legend, extensive water law, and the roots of modern hydrology: The flood experienced by Noah is thought to have centered its devastation around the Babylonian city of Ur, submerging the southern part of the Euphrates for about 150 days, while the code of King Hammurabi contains as many as 300 sections dealing with irrigation. …