The geography of EU discontent

TLDR

Support for anti‑EU parties has risen rapidly, driven by demographic and economic differences that also fuel populism. The study maps EU discontent across 63,000 electoral districts in the EU‑28 and evaluates which factors drive anti‑EU voting. The authors analyze the geographic distribution of anti‑EU votes and assess the influence of local economic, industrial, employment, and educational variables. Anti‑EU voting is mainly driven by local economic and industrial decline, low employment, and lower education, whereas other factors have weaker or variable effects.

Abstract

Support for parties opposed to European Union (EU) integration has risen rapidly, and a wave of discontent has taken over the EU. This discontent is purportedly driven by the very factors behind the surge of populism: differences in age, wealth, education, or economic and demographic trajectories. This paper maps the geography of EU discontent across more than 63,000 electoral districts in the EU-28 and assesses which factors push anti-EU voting. The results show that the anti-EU vote is mainly a consequence of local economic and industrial decline in combination with lower employment and a less educated workforce. Many of the other suggested causes of discontent, by contrast, matter less than expected, or their impact varies depending on levels of opposition to European integration.