Modelling the impacts of EU countries’ electric car deployment plans on atmospheric emissions and concentrations

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to quantify key environmental impacts of electric vehicles deployment in the European Union. This is achieved by soft-linking three models (PRIMES-TREMOVE, DIONE and SHERPA) to explore a base and an alternative scenario. The alternative scenario draws on the assessment of the national policy frameworks for alternative fuels infrastructure requested by the Directive (2014/94/EU). Five environmental indicators are examined: tailpipe CO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions as well as NO2 and PM2.5 urban background concentrations. By 2030, car travel activity is simulated to generate ca. 425 MtCO2/year in the EU28 under the alternative scenario. Compared to the base scenario, electric vehicles contribute to a 3% reduction in tailpipe CO2 emissions. Only two countries attain CO2 emission reductions greater than 10% in the model. The need for a higher level of policy ambition towards the deployment of less polluting vehicles in Europe is highlighted as a conclusion.