Traffic Congestion Prediction by Spatiotemporal Propagation Patterns

Abstract

Accurate prediction of traffic congestion at the granularity of road segment is important for planning travel routes and optimizing traffic control in urban areas. Previous works often calculated only the average congestion levels of a large region covering many road segments and did not take into account spatial correlation between road segments, resulting in inaccurate and coarse-grained prediction. To overcome these issues, we propose in this paper CPM-ConvLSTM, a spatiotemporal model for short-term prediction of congestion level in each road segment. Our model is built on a spatial matrix which incorporates both the congestion propagation pattern and the spatial correlation between road segments. The preliminary experiments on the traffic data set collected from Helsinki, Finland prove that CPM-ConvLSTM greatly outperforms 6 counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy.