Species and phylogenetic endemism in angiosperm trees across the Northern Hemisphere are jointly shaped by modern climate and glacial–interglacial climate change

Abstract

Abstract Aims Phylogenetic endemism describes the extent to which unique phylogenetic lineages are constrained to restricted geographic areas. Previous studies indicate that species endemism is related to both past and modern climate, but studies of phylogenetic endemism are relatively rare and mainly focused on smaller regions. Here, we provide the first assessment of the patterns of species and phylogenetic endemism in angiosperm trees across the Northern Hemisphere as well as the relative importance of modern climate and glacial–interglacial climate change as drivers of these patterns. Location Northern Hemisphere. Major taxa Angiosperm trees. Methods Using tree assemblages at the scale of 100 km × 100 km grid cells and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models, we assessed the relationships between species endemism, phylogenetic endemism and modern climate variables, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present temperature velocity. Results Species and phylogenetic endemism were associated with both modern climate and glacial–interglacial climate change, with higher values in areas with stable historical climate and warmer and wetter modern conditions. Notably, the multivariate SAR analyses showed that the combinations of variables with highest Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) weight always included both LGM–present climate instability and modern climate, that is, modern precipitation and temperature. Main conclusions Our results show that high phylogenetic endemism is partially dependent on long‐term climate stability, highlighting the threat posed by future climate changes to the preservation of rare, phylogenetically distinct lineages of trees.