Approaches to Understanding Sustainable Peace: Qualitative Causal Loop Diagrams and Quantitative Mathematical Models

Abstract

Scholarly research on peace has overwhelmingly focused on negative peace, or the absence of conflict, aggression, violence, and war. We seek to understand holistic peace systems, the political, economic, and social systems that sustain peaceful societies. We show how two methods can help us understand the properties and dynamics of such complex peace systems. Each method provides insights from different perspectives to help understand sustaining peace. The causal loop diagram helps us to identify the peace factors and the connections between them. The mathematical model helps us determine the quantitative results of the interactions between all the peace factors. Using these methods, we found that there is no single “leverage” factor that is the lynchpin in creating sustainable peace. Rather, the small effects of a large number of positive peace factors that support peace can collectively overcome the stronger emotional response to the negative conflict factors that jeopardize peace.