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The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

Jane P. Messina, Oliver J. Brady, Nick Golding, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, William Wint, Sarah E. Ray, David M. Pigott, Freya M. Shearer, Kimberly B. Johnson, Lucas Earl,

Nature Microbiology · 2019 · 1.4K citations · 61 references

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TL;DR

Dengue, a mosquito‑borne viral infection, now affects over half the world’s population and its geographic range is projected to expand further with climate change and urbanization. This study is the first to incorporate Aedes mosquito vector spread to project dengue suitability. Using statistical mapping on the largest case‑location database, the authors projected global environmental suitability for dengue in 2015 and projected future suitability and human population at risk for 2020, 2050, and 2080 with climate, population, and socioeconomic scenarios. The projections reveal a growing global threat of dengue, providing evidence to help decision‑makers prepare for future risk changes.

Abstract

Abstract Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.