Risk assessment using the analytic hierarchy process while planning and prior to constructing wind projects in Jordan

Abstract

The exploitation of wind energy for generating power is taking a major role in the electricity consumption globally. Proper utilization of wind resource could maximize its capacity factor and minimize electricity costs. This article will provide a tool for minimizing wind energy project risks for further investment to consider and choosing the best location in Jordan. For this process, the following risk factors were first identified: strategic management errors, transport, construction, operation and maintenance, marketing and policy risks. Then, using analytic hierarchy process, a complete risk assessment model was built and applied to two alternatives, Ras Moneef and Al-Fujaij. The results showed Al-Fujaij as a better potential location with relative importance to the factors compared with Ras Moneef. Among these risk factors, strategic and business risk have the highest impact, which can be mitigated by performing effective management, accurate contracting, and conducting emergency plans. It is believed that such results could benefit the project stakeholders to be aware of the risk items to be invested in while considering the project funding limits. The proposed framework also enables decision makers to create a reasonable fund and set achievable objectives for the project.