Robust decision making analysis of BECCS (bio-CLC) in a district heating and cooling grid

Abstract

Additional investments to negative emission technologies, such as reforestation or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are required to achieve Paris Agreement targets. Chemical-looping combustion of biomass (Bio-CLC)is an under-the-development combustion technology that could provide relatively low cost negative CO2 emissions. We modelled Bio-CLC units as a part of a city-level district heating and cooling (DHC)grid based on literature and our experimental work with Bio-CLC pilot plants. We applied robust decision-making (RDM)to identify preconditions that favour Bio-CLC over certain competing investment options. In the selected case study, a Bio-CLC unit had a 50% chance to be profitable (10% Internal rate of return or better)around the level of 10 €/tCO2 net income from captured bio-CO2. If the net income from captured bio-CO2 was below 10 €/tCO2, as currently, large heat pumps with COP of 3.5 were the most robust of the studied investment options. Traditional bio-CHP performed better than large heat pumps only when electricity market price was above 50 €/MWh and biomass price below 20 €/MWh. Performed RDM analysis provides a systemic background for both technology developers and DHC operators when considering the competitiveness of the technology in an uncertain future.