Building an expert judgment-based model of mangrove fisheries

Abstract

Mangroves are critically important habitats for fisheries, both\nfor their resident fish, crustacean, and mollusk populations and as nursery\ngrounds for the target species of offshore fisheries. However, the spatial variation\nin the benefits provided by mangroves to fisheries is poorly understood.\nBased on expert knowledge of mangrove ecology and fisheries biology, we developed\na preliminary model of the spatial distribution of benefits to fisheries\nfrom mangroves. The preliminary model covers the environmental factors that\ndetermine the amount of fish, crustaceans, mollusks, and other fishery target\nspecies produced by mangrove areas (termed “potential fish production”) and\nthe socioeconomic variables that determine the level of fishing in any given location.\nThe combination of these two outputs gives the predicted catch. Potential\nfish production is predicted to be highest where there is high freshwater and\nnutrient input to mangroves, such as in large estuaries. At large seascape scales,\ntotal mangrove area is also an important driver. Fishing effort is highest close\nto human populations, which provide both the fishers and the markets for their\ncatch. The model is qualitative and has not been parameterized with field data\nand, as such, should only be considered as a first step towards understanding\nthe spatial variation in the benefits that mangroves provide to fisheries.