Is Green Growth Possible?

TLDR

Green growth posits that economic expansion can be reconciled with ecological limits through technological change, and this idea underpins many national and international policies, including the Sustainable Development Goals. Empirical analysis shows that absolute decoupling of resource use and carbon emissions from GDP growth is not observed globally, and even optimistic projections suggest decoupling is too slow to avert 1.5°C or 2°C warming, rendering green growth an unlikely policy goal.

Abstract

The notion of green growth has emerged as a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory asserts that continued economic expansion is compatible with our planet's ecology, as technological change and substitution will allow us to absolutely decouple GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions. This claim is now assumed in national and international policy, including in the Sustainable Development Goals. But empirical evidence on resource use and carbon emissions does not support green growth theory. Examining relevant studies on historical trends and model-based projections, we find that: (1) there is no empirical evidence that absolute decoupling from resource use can be achieved on a global scale against a background of continued economic growth, and (2) absolute decoupling from carbon emissions is highly unlikely to be achieved at a rate rapid enough to prevent global warming over 1.5°C or 2°C, even under optimistic policy conditions. We conclude that green growth is likely to be a misguided objective, and that policymakers need to look toward alternative strategies.