Traffic Light Systems: To What Extent Can Induced Seismicity Be Controlled?

Abstract

Research Article| March 27, 2019 Traffic Light Systems: To What Extent Can Induced Seismicity Be Controlled? Stefan Baisch; Stefan Baisch aQ‐con GmbH, Marktstrasse 39, 76887 Bad Bergzabern, Germany, [e-mail], [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Christopher Koch; Christopher Koch aQ‐con GmbH, Marktstrasse 39, 76887 Bad Bergzabern, Germany, [e-mail], [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Annemarie Muntendam‐Bos Annemarie Muntendam‐Bos bState Supervision of the Mines, Henri Faasdreef 312, 2492 JP The Hague, The Netherlands, [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seismological Research Letters (2019) 90 (3): 1145–1154. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180337 Article history first online: 27 Mar 2019 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Stefan Baisch, Christopher Koch, Annemarie Muntendam‐Bos; Traffic Light Systems: To What Extent Can Induced Seismicity Be Controlled?. Seismological Research Letters 2019;; 90 (3): 1145–1154. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180337 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT In different subsurface energy technologies, traffic light systems (TLSs) have been implemented for limiting the strength of induced seismicity. Despite their widespread application, fundamental assumptions regarding the controllability of induced seismicity were usually not reviewed. This is the focus of the current article, in which we discuss limitations of a TLS in the context of seismicity induced by fluid injection and gas production.Most existing TLSs are based on a critical earthquake magnitude or vibration level that should be prevented to occur. Operational measures are defined to be taken after an induced earthquake exceeds predefined threshold values. This concept rests on the tacit assumptions that induced earthquakes of a critical strength announce themselves by precursory events of smaller strength and that future earthquakes of a critical strength can be prevented by modifying or stopping subsurface operations. We investigate to what extent these assumptions can be justified by studying observation data from a dozen fluid‐injection operations in geothermal reservoirs as well as from gas production in 26 gas fields in The Netherlands.In our case studies, whereas fluid injection–induced seismicity generally starts at a low‐magnitude level and exhibits a gradual temporal increase of the maximum earthquake magnitude with the duration of the injection, the largest magnitude event frequently occurs postinjection. The temporal evolution of the seismicity induced by gas production in The Netherlands is less systematic. In some gas fields, seismicity started at a comparatively large‐magnitude level (⁠ML≥2.7⁠) without detectable precursors. A correlation between seismic activity and the gas production rate is only observed in the largest gas field.Our findings indicate that the precision to what an earthquake of a given strength can be prevented by a TLS has more limitations than typically assumed. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.