Teflon Don or Politics as Usual? An Examination of Foreign Policy Flip-Flops in the Age of Trump

Abstract

American politics in the age of Donald Trump is characterized by negative affect toward politicians of the opposing party and a willingness on the part of citizens to forgive most sins of copartisans. Against this backdrop, we ask whether Trump’s numerous high-profile reversals on foreign policy issues matter. Given our polarized political environment, we argue that there is little reason for Trump to worry about looking inconsistent. Drawing on prior scholarship, we contend that when citizens evaluate a leader who has reversed, policy preferences will supersede any consideration of a flip-flop. We also argue that partisan motivated reasoning and preexisting attitudes toward Trump will overwhelm the impact of a reversal on most matters of foreign policy. Using two survey experiments that reflect real-world events, we show that citizens do not change their attitudes toward Donald Trump significantly even when his policy reversals are made explicit.