Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2019

Abstract

PURPOSE: This study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2019 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2016 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2017 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly; we used only the data of the latest trend. RESULTS: A total of 221,347 new cancer cases and 82,344 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2019. The most common cancer sites thus far have been the lung, followed by the stomach, colon and rectum, breast, and liver. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For cancer associated mortality, the most common sites were lung, followed by the liver, colon and rectum, stomach, and pancreas. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of all cancer in Korea is estimated to decrease gradually. These up-todate estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.