How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting

Abstract

Abstract Global warming projections point to a wide range of impacts on the climate system, including changes in storm track activity and more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Little is however known on whether and how global warming may affect the atmosphere's predictability and thus our ability to produce accurate weather forecasts. Here, we combine a state‐of‐the‐art climate and a state‐of‐the‐art ensemble weather prediction model to show that, in a business‐as‐usual 21st century setting, global warming could significantly change the predictability of the atmosphere, defined here via the expected error of weather predictions. Predictability of synoptic weather situations could significantly increase, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. This can be explained by a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient. Contrarily, summertime predictability of weekly rainfall sums might significantly decrease in most regions.