Predicting the Energy Consumption of Residential Buildings for Regional Electricity Supply-Side and Demand-Side Management

TLDR

Energy consumption predictions for residential buildings are crucial for managing dynamic and seasonal supply‑demand changes, yet no public studies have addressed regional rating predictions across entire regions. The study aims to precisely classify monthly electricity consumption ratings for over 16,000 residential buildings across a region using open data. The authors mine regional data to uncover usage patterns, cluster buildings with a particle swarm optimization–K‑means algorithm, and then train a support vector machine classifier to assign consumption ratings. The resulting model achieves 96.8 % accuracy and 97.4 % F‑measure, outperforming conventional methods, and provides the power sector with a reliable tool for dynamic consumption analysis and grid optimization.

Abstract

Energy consumption predictions for residential buildings play an important role in the energy management and control system, as the supply and demand of energy experience dynamic and seasonal changes. In this paper, monthly electricity consumption ratings are precisely classified based on open data in an entire region, which includes over 16 000 residential buildings. First, data mining techniques are used to discover and summarize the electricity usage patterns hidden in the data. Second, the particle swarm optimization-K-means algorithm is applied to the clustering analysis, and the level of electricity usage is divided by the cluster centers. Finally, an efficient classification model using a support vector machine as the basic optimization framework is proposed, and its feasibility is verified. The results illustrate that the accuracy and F-measure of the new model reach 96.8% and 97.4%, respectively, which vastly exceed those of conventional methods. To the best of our knowledge, the research on predicting the electricity consumption ratings of residential buildings in an entire region has not been publicly released. The method proposed in this paper would assist the power sector in grasping the dynamic behavior of residential electricity for supply and demand management strategies and provide a decision-making reference for the rational allocation of the power supply, which will be valuable in improving the overall power grid quality.