Fragmentation and Mobilization: Domestic Politics of the Belt and Road in China

TLDR

The Belt and Road Initiative, now five years old, has become the most scrutinized foreign‑policy project of the PRC, attracting extensive scholarly and policy attention worldwide. This study examines the internal political dynamics of the Chinese state that shape the BRI’s scope and trajectory, moving beyond its external ambitions. The authors argue that the BRI functions as a mobilization campaign by the Communist leadership to address domestic and diplomatic challenges, while lower‑level governments and business groups exploit it to advance local economic interests. Mobilization amplifies state fragmentation, leading to a decentralized implementation that diverges from official rhetoric, reviving local growth but delaying broader economic restructuring and rebalancing.

Abstract

The Belt and Road initiative is five years old and has resulted in voluminous publications by scholars and policy pundits in many corners of the world. It is by far the most watched foreign policy initiative that the PRC has projected on the world stage. Departing from the standard focus on BRI's external ambition, this article investigates the political dynamics inside the Chinese state, which has driven and will continue to shape the contour and magnitude of the BRI in the future. The article builds a theory of state fragmentation and argues that the Belt and Road is a mobilization campaign by the Communist leadership in order to deal with domestic and diplomatic challenges. Mobilization, however, intensifies fragmentation and results in the decentralized implementation of the BRI that diverges from the rhetoric of the strategy. Lower-level governments and major business groups leverage on the BRI and devise projects and programs that serve their economic interests. On the one hand, economic growth is being revived in the localities; on the other, restructuring and rebalancing of the Chinese economy are delayed.