Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis of Multi-Scale Damaged Vegetation in the Wenchuan Earthquake-Affected Area, Southwest China

Abstract

Major earthquakes can cause serious vegetation destruction in affected areas. However, little is known about the spatial patterns of damaged vegetation and its influencing factors. Elucidating the main influencing factors and finding out the key vegetation type to reflect spatial patterns of damaged vegetation are of great interest in order to improve the assessment of vegetation loss and the prediction of the spatial distribution of damaged vegetation caused by earthquakes. In this study, we used Moran’s I correlograms to study the spatial autocorrelation of damaged vegetation and its potential driving factors in the nine worst-hit Wenchuan earthquake-affected cities and counties. Both dependent and independent variables showed a positive spatial autocorrelation but with great differences at four aggregation levels (625 × 625 m, 1250 × 1250 m, 2500 × 2500 m, and 5000 × 5000 m). Shrubs can represent the characteristics of all damaged vegetation due to the significant linear relationship between their Moran’s I at the four aggregation levels. Clustering of similar high coverage of damaged vegetation occurred in the study area. The residuals of the standard linear regression model also show a significantly positive autocorrelation, indicating that the standard linear regression model cannot explain all the spatial patterns in damaged vegetation. Spatial autoregressive models without spatially autocorrelated residuals had the better goodness-of-fit to deal with damaged vegetation. The aggregation level 8 × 8 is a scale threshold for spatial autocorrelation. There are other environmental factors affecting vegetation destruction. Our study provides useful information for the countermeasures of vegetation protection and conservation, as well as the prediction of the spatial distribution of damaged vegetation, to improve vegetation restoration in earthquake-affected areas.