Strategies to Achieve Net Zero Emissions in Nepal

Abstract

Countries adopted the Paris Agreement to pursue efforts towards limiting the global average temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this target, the global emission level will have to be negative by the second half of the century. This study aims to analyse different GHG mitigation pathways to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 in Nepal. The study first assesses the energy use and emissions in the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario during 2010-2050 using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Enduse (AIM/Enduse). In addition to the BAU scenario, the study has assessed six scenarios: a No Climate Policy (NCP) scenario (without carbon tax) and five carbon tax scenarios. The carbon tax rate varies from $10 to $800 per tCO2e among the five carbon tax scenarios. According to the study, the GHG emissions in 2050 is estimated to be 32.9 MtCO2e in the BAU, 30.3 MtCO2e in the NCP and 5.1 MtCO2e at the highest carbon tax scenario (i.e. at $800/tCO2e). The study then analyses options to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. This can be achieved through carbon offset by hydropower export and carbon sequestration by forests. The analyses show that a carbon tax can be an effective instrument in reducing GHG emissions and that forests can act as a carbon sink to offset the remaining emissions to achieve carbon neutrality.