Static and Dynamic Predictors of General and Violent Criminal Offense Recidivism in the Forensic Outpatient Population: A Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Several meta-analyses have examined the Central Eight risk factors for reoffending in the general forensic population. To our knowledge, this is the first meta-analysis to focus exclusively on the predictive validity of risk factors for recidivism in forensic outpatients. A multilevel meta-analysis was conducted of studies in which static and dynamic risk factors were investigated as predictors of violent and/or general recidivism in forensic outpatients. Twenty-seven studies were included, with 543 effect sizes in a unique population of 116,982 adult offenders. The Central Eight risk domains were found to be predictive of violent and general recidivism; however, these factors predicted recidivism with small-to-moderate effects. Overall, in the same domain, the dynamic risk factors were more strongly related to recidivism than the static risk factors. This knowledge may be used to guide future outpatient treatment.