Revisit China's Lewis Turning Point: An Analysis from a Regional Perspective

Abstract

China's significantly slower economic growth since 2012 has been attributed to the passing of its Lewis turning point and the depletion of surplus labor in rural agriculture. At the same time, some export‐oriented labor‐intensive manufacturers have moved their factories from coastal to inland cities. Against this background, we re‐examine China's Lewis turning point and highlight the regional variations in economic development. Our analysis shows that China's eastern and north‐eastern regions passed the turning point by 2010, while the central region is approaching this point and the western region remains far from it. However, only 6 provinces have passed the turning point. These findings indicate the need to focus on noticeable regional and provincial variations in China's economic development.