Long-term energy strategy scenarios for South Korea: Transition to a sustainable energy system

TLDR

The study develops roadmaps and long‑term policies for South Korea’s sustainable energy system by creating transition scenarios toward renewable energy for both supply and demand. Using the LEAP model and a backcasting approach, the authors construct four scenarios—BAU, MTS, ATS, and VTS—differing in 2050 final energy consumption and renewable energy share. The scenarios show that higher renewable penetration and lower energy demand improve energy security, create jobs in electricity generation, reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions, and provide strategic targets for sustainable development.

Abstract

This study aims to provide roadmaps for the sustainable development of South Korea's energy system. To this end, this study developed transition scenarios toward renewable energy for both supply and demand. We use "Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP)" Model and a backcasting approach to illustrate pathways to achieve the goals set forth in each of the scenarios. The four scenarios developed are Business-As-Usual (BAU), Moderate Transition Scenario (MTS), Advanced Transition Scenario (ATS), and Visionary Transition Scenario (VTS). The scenarios are defined according to the differences in the level of final energy consumption and renewable energy share by 2050. Analysis shows an increase in the percentage of renewable energy and a decrease in energy demand lead to improved energy security, more jobs in the electricity generation sector, and a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. The pathways represented by these scenarios can be regarded as strategic targets for the sustainable development of South Korea's energy system. A set of comprehensive and long-term policies will be needed to attain the goals set forth in the scenarios.