A Comparison of Various Forecasting Techniques for Coffee Prices

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and compare among forecasting techniques for selecting the best to predict the volatility of coffee commodity prices. This study uses secondary data at two diffferent markets, world and domestic markets. Three forecating techniques apply in this research, namely, MA, ARIMA and Decomposition The most appropriate model to forecast world and domestic coffee prices are the ARIMA model. This conclusion is based on the lowest MAPE, MAD and MSD values.