Study on Medium and Long-Term Generation Expansion Planning Method Considering the Requirements of Green Low-Carbon Development

Abstract

The development path for generation expansion planning is gradually shifting from economical optimization to a multi-objective collaborative optimization, looking for a solution which is environmental friendly, economical and low-carbon. In this paper, a planning model is proposed, which aims at minimizing the total social cost under the constraints introduced by the renewable energy development strategies, the combination of flexible power supplies, and the scale of fossil energy development. After discussing the weaknesses of current generation expansion planning methods, a research methodology is proposed. Then, based on the idea of decomposition and coordination, a bi-level generation expansion planning model aiming at the largest proportion of non-fossil energy and the lowest social cost is built. The upper level is a power source investment decision-making problem, taking the lowest investment cost as objective function and considering various constraints such as power system operation, resources, policies and so on. The lower level is a probabilistic production simulation problem considering the characteristics of renewable energy. Afterwards, a multi-layer iteration optimization algorithm is used to simulate development paths of power supplies with different proportions of non-fossil energy. At last, based on the data of a province in China, the proposed planning model and optimization method are simulated and verified.