Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electrical Dispatcher of Baghdad City based on SVM-FA

Abstract

The improvement of load forecasting accuracy is an important issue in the scientific optimization of power systems. The availability of accurate statistical data and a suitable scientific method are necessary for a perfect prediction of future occurrences. This research deals with the use of a regression forecast model (Support Vector Machine, SVM) for the prediction of the vector data for electrical power loading and temperature in Baghdad city. The Firefly algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the SVM to improve its prediction accuracy. The quantitative statistical performance evaluation measures (absolute proportional error (MAPE)) were used to evaluate the performance of the optimization methods. The results proved that the modification method was more accurate compared to the basic method and PSO-SVM.