Estimating the Economic Impacts of Net Metering Schemes for Residential PV Systems with Profiling of Power Demand, Generation, and Market Prices

TLDR

The study evaluates how different net‑metering support schemes affect the profitability of projected residential photovoltaic investments and the power system’s ability to balance generation with support costs. Using a year‑long hourly dataset of Nord Pool prices, Latvian prosumer demand and generation from over 100 clients, the authors forecast 25 years of operations and compute economic indicators via a detailed net‑metering billing model and Monte Carlo simulation. The authors recommend replacing the current net‑metering system with a superior scheme that incorporates market energy costs.

Abstract

This article analyses the influence of supporting scheme variants on the profitability of a projected investment of residential photovoltaic systems. The focus of the paper lies in evaluating the feasibility for the power system of solar power generation technologies to achieve a balance between energy generation and support costs in a more efficient way. The case study is based on a year-long time series of examples with an hourly resolution of electricity prices from the Nord Pool power market, in addition to the power demand and solar generation of Latvian prosumers. Electric energy generation and the consumption of big data from more than 100 clients were collected. Based on these data, we predict the processes for the next 25 years, and we estimate economic indicators using a detailed description of the net metering billing system and the Monte-Carlo method. A recommendation to change the current net system to a superior one, taking into account the market cost of energy, concludes the paper.