Detecting early‐warning signals of influenza outbreak based on dynamic network marker

Abstract

The seasonal outbreaks of influenza infection cause globally respiratory illness, or even death in all age groups. Given early-warning signals preceding the influenza outbreak, timely intervention such as vaccination and isolation management effectively decrease the morbidity. However, it is usually a difficult task to achieve the real-time prediction of influenza outbreak due to its complexity intertwining both biological systems and social systems. By exploring rich dynamical and high-dimensional information, our dynamic network marker/biomarker (DNM/DNB) method opens a new way to identify the tipping point prior to the catastrophic transition into an influenza pandemics. In order to detect the early-warning signals before the influenza outbreak by applying DNM method, the historical information of clinic hospitalization caused by influenza infection between years 2009 and 2016 were extracted and assembled from public records of Tokyo and Hokkaido, Japan. The early-warning signal, with an average of 4-week window lead prior to each seasonal outbreak of influenza, was provided by DNM-based on the hospitalization records, providing an opportunity to apply proactive strategies to prevent or delay the onset of influenza outbreak. Moreover, the study on the dynamical changes of hospitalization in local district networks unveils the influenza transmission dynamics or landscape in network level.