The Phosphorus Transfer Continuum: A Framework for Exploring Effects of Climate Change

Abstract

Core Ideas Climate change effects on the P transfer continuum are examined. P export and eutrophication will likely increase under a changing climate. Climate change effects on catchment P processing are complex and poorly understood. Modeling of P flows and catchment P buffering is needed to inform management. Research should consider the effects of climate change on each tier of the continuum. Phosphorus inputs to agriculture and their fate in the environment contribute to poor water quality and degradation of linked ecosystem services at great cost to society. Climate change is likely to alter the forms and timings of P fluxes from land to water and their ecological impact, the effects of which are uncertain and need to be considered to inform future catchment management for eutrophication control. The P transfer continuum is an established conceptual model that we propose as a suitable framework to consider the potential effects of climate change on catchment P transfer. Consideration of this continuum suggests that predicted changes in temperature and precipitation will likely increase P transfer and associated eutrophication costs in some regions. Further research should examine climate change effects on each tier of the continuum to inform the necessary land management adaptations and transformations to ensure future food system P efficiency and resilience.