Delay causality network in air transport systems

Abstract

To better understand the mechanism of flight delay propagation at the system-level, we built a delay causality network (DCN) based on the Granger causality test. Through topological analysis of DCNs, we found that only about a quarter of airports were involved in delay propagation during the peak travel period and large airports affected by many upstream airports impact fewer downstream airports. Furthermore, temporal analysis of DCNs indicates that the culprits of delay propagation in the air transport system are not a fixed set of airports; instead, they vary daily depending on the operational environment.